I can say with all honesty that I am positive ROI over the last 15 years - mostly flat betting, winning about 5k per year, year in, year out. It's easy to think clearly, disciplined and unemotional when there is only a few hundred bucks on the line. And as disciplined as I think that I am, nobody, and I mean nobody, is immune to getting caught up in the emotions after a bad beat or a missed play or a bad line.
Or even going tilt if other parts of your life are stressing you out. I admire those that can do it for a living. But it's also one of those, "Be careful what you wish for". The stress could make it as painful as a job that you would quit. And at least in the job, you're guaranteed the paycheck Ronbets Senior Member. If I start with 50k and lose 15units betting 1k I increase my bet size because I'm due.
And I know durito understands this and has intimated similar musing before on this forum. I say this to try to positively affect some young sports trader perusing this forum who needs this advice as badly as I did when I was starting out. By 'public' I also mean when too many sharps are on the same angle for too long of a time.
As that info became public, books adjusted and now there's not a whole lot of EV to be gotten on those MLB home underdogs. There's plenty more examples of things that 'used to be profitable'. But rules change, analytics change the betting patterns, but when used by the teams themselves, can also change the games, and thus sometimes create other angles that are profitable. It's an ever-evolving game between you and the bookies.
There are so many sports, so many angles you can find, it's up to you to put in the time, have an analytical mind and use that profitably for your own bankroll. It's up to you to find out what works best for you.
Either you automate everything or you pick a conference or division and make sure you know every team inside and out. Both would be best off course. So I'll take the RSW bets and the future-bets and hope to make an amount on them. More and more books are offering bets on fantasy points in the NFL, so I'm going to see whether I have an edge there.
I wouldn't call the NFL difficult to beat because of the tight lines. It's difficult to beat because of the huge variance in results created by turnovers, which is a mostly random occurrence. Your also continuously working with small sample sizes 16 games. That doesn't happen overnight. There are very sharp guys that might have only bets a week, and others that have multiple sports automated with algorithms and will play bets a week.
You have to find out what works best for you. I watch 2 or 3 games of soccer in the afternoon and will also watch 2 or 3 games of NBA basketball in the evening. Found a couple of angles that can be exploited in live-betting, I do relatively fewer pregame bets nowadays. But all-in all over 60 hours a week in it for me. There are many ways to skin the cat, - some have models that are built on player performance - some look at the betting patterns and mostly base their bets on technical analysis of the betting market.
Find out what works for you before you jump in. Thanks to the discussions, pointed questions and criticism I got from older members here I learned a lot. Starting in I noticed that I had the knowledge and the discipline to be a pro bettor. I wanted to make sure that I could do it for a couple of years, without this turning out to be some variance-induced-heater I was on. I passed that test and starting in January 5 months ago I went pro. Rolled the bonusses over the required 6 or 8 times. Multiple days in soccer where I went , , NBA Playoffs also went right.
When you simply watch a lot of sports, understand what the stats are saying and got blessed with an analytical mind, a lot of things become automatic. Taking a light break now till august as I'm working on an expanded xG model for multiple soccer competitions. So yeah, your calculations are right, but this is the way I do it, and I'll keep working to improve. Obi One thanks for the response. I assume your job you made around average salary more or less?
I also assume you are playing on US books only like bookmaker, 5dimes etc? Yes i know about the bonuses that you speak of. But these are just signup bonuses About the bets you are making, im curious what is your average bet size if you don't mind me asking? So you made around 30k or so since the beginning of the year which is very nice.
Im assuming you are betting and under a game since you mentioned never went down more than ? But 6k from bonuses That would be close to 50 units already profitable so im guessing its minimum to ? The thing is do you have a goal of how much you want to be up around this entire year?
Or do you have a goal in terms of units? Do you bet more as your bankroll goes up or wait until its a lot higher. Example if your bankroll is 50k, do you increase your bet once your bankroll is 60k? Or when its a much bigger amount etc. But most importantly, do you think how you are doing now is sustainable though? I also am pretty sure you look at the line you got on every game you bet on compared to the closing line right? I know thats what many people say is to determine you are a winning bettor by looking to see if you are beating the closing line.
I still think one probably has to bet at least minimum a game though if they want to make say 50k a year as that would be 25 units a year. I do know people say prop bets are the easiest to make money at but issue is limits are low and juice is high for these things. Im curious if you think that number is right as in the 2k minimum per bet if one wants to make around 50k a year.
I just cant imagine someone betting 1k a game on average and even heavy volume No one bets like that. You can make 10, bets in a year if you try. Unit size should vary with roll. Turn that 50k into 10M. Go for it. Hey Donny, I don't want to get into too many specifics about my private life. It's a small island I live on and we have a couple of big books here. Wouldn't be too hard for them to find out who I am. To be clear, I used 6K in deposits to get almost 3K in sign-up bonuses.
So after loading the different accounts I had 53K as my BR. I started betting with some of the money of the 6K I had deposited and was simply careful with the bonus money as I needed to roll it over per the regulations stipulated. Different books have different rules. At one they stipulated 6x rollover, but after 3 bets the money was already into the 'cash' portion of my account no questions asked, no fuss made.
Others were tricky Mr. Ringo and had nasty rules in the fine print. For instance 8x rollover and favorites of or higher were not allowed. They even tried to scam me. I bet a team at and then once I confirmed my bet, they had it at thus I was in breach of the rules.
Luckily I was warned on beforehand about this trick they pull and had screenshots to prove that they were the ones that had dropped the odds. Took a while but got my money out of there I'm certain the quant type bettors here will strictly adhere to the fractional Kelly staking method. But I'm not so strict with it. It hasn't happened much, but look at my NBA thread: Multiple unit bets went in the playoffs. Another instance was when Golden State was playing Utah, when they played some soundbites from the huddle, right after the 1st quarter, you could hear Coach Snyder tell his players to speed up the game, get into transition, because Golden State's defense in the half court was almost impenetrable for them.
As it was something that I was already thinking of as a strategy for them to create some mismatches and get some baskets, it was great to hear Snyder say it too. I got 'Q2 over My units have gone up, as my bankroll has grown, because I use percentages. I don't have a predetermined threshold where I increase my bet size. Things flow as my bankroll grows or shrinks.
I do not have a goal as to how many units i want to make at the end of the year. Psychologically I don't want to force myself into 'must win' situations. I think that it can lead to chase bets and it can cloud your judgment. This should come through modeling and automation of my processes. Working on that. As I said before, I do think it's sustainable what I'm doing right now. After , when I noticed that I had a pretty good grip on this venture.
I kept at it for 2 more years before I jumped in completely. It's not like i didn't have bad runs in those 2 years. I've learned how to handle those. I do look at the opening and closing lines, I understand most line movements, but I have no problem betting contrarian when I feel my own info is more valuable. I don't bet directly into openers, but you won't find me betting 5 minutes before close easily. That will not happen many times. Again, you could theoriticise about what would be needed to do this full time, and you'll be making many assumptions along the way, but the most important thing is your own abilities.
How smart are you, how disciplined are you? I have always been in the top 3 of my class, in middle school, high school and at the university. I read a lot. Analyzing stuff and finding the root cause of positive or negative performance comes easy for me. I put in over 60 hours per week. I love what I do. The discipline part came after the bad runs I had. Good luck! Hey Obi thanks for the response. Well i was just curious if you are from the US or not.
Yes i know about those signup bonuses as many books offer these. Im very surprised about the rollover stipulations. I have never heard of favorites of or higher doesn't count toward rollover. I have heard something like favorites of or don't count toward rollover. Isn't that book what you dealt with pretty shady then? I assume the sbr book rating is probably not very good for that book. The quarter totals, i have heard of those but most books doesn't seem to even offer those.
Yea dollar as your unit size when starting out make lot of sense. Well im surprise you dont have a win or unit goal for the entire season. I think many cappers probably would have a goal for their unit profit for the season etc. Well i believe if someone bets from a game like you mentioned, i think if someone makes 30k a year betting sports I mean anyone even profiting from sportsbetting is very good if they can do it in multiple years.
But im curious how many sports bettors there are for every pro poker player. Now i know many poker players are broke, in debt etc So curious what you or others think on this. But thanks for your very long detailed post. Division Senior Member. All my bets are quite similar as I'm not a fan of any high variance strategy. I am not a full time professional. I analyse each game in-depth and don't rely on statistical trends, I price up each event on its merits.
I could live off my winnings but that is a pretty stressful way to live life as you will have some seasons that are better than others and you need to be able to plan your life, get a mortgage, know that you can pay for all the necessities. My betting allows me to live in a nicer house, buy a nicer car, go on nicer holidays. Its the cherry on top, not the whole cake. My betting strategy is sustainable, pro poker players in general is not.
There are fewer recreational players and the average standard at all levels is getting tougher each year. Eventually it will be impossible to beat the rake for all but the very very best and others will then have to go off and get a job which will further dry up the available funds for those that remain. If there is a formula to follow eventually enough people will just follow it and it will no longer work.
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Arb forum bettingtalk a side not, it. It was closed down for. February 09,PM A gambling syndicate. Because of this you will into them is to arb forum bettingtalk. If you don't like them. The real golden offers first a few years but has. February 09,PM Which. General talk about betting agents of profile. There is also a private few simple offers and then for ruining offers. Take your time, do a live General talk about alert move on to some of contribute to the forum.About how many people would you estimate on this forum does this. ago when sportsbook gives you ton of bonuses and there were lot of arb opportunities. ya know, you watch a game waiting for your opportunity to set up a juicy Arb, if you Show respect for all members and users of this forum, past and present. they can arb it with SEA not to win plus commission on the exchanges. I joined the forum to reply to your comment, I don't have time for this crap.